On March 15, the Federal Reserve of the United States raises the interest rate, which means the United States has entered the rate hike cycle. Is the market generally concerned about whether the world has entered a different era of contraction with the past? In this regard, we believe that the world has not entered the era of contraction, and will not do so in the short term. The Federal Reserve is now in the rate hike cycle because the stability of the US economic recovery. However, there is a gap in the economic recovery in other regions. Although the European Central Bank has expressed the will for tightening measures, its speed and extent is still not resolute enough; Japan will not follow the US interest rate policy and will maintain a negative interest rate policy; if it is necessary to do so Japan might reduce negative interest rates. Although China is implementing sound neutral monetary policy, the requirements of steady growth still need to maintain a loose liquidity. Overall, the world is still in the stage of excess liquidity, the US interest rate increase will not change this situation in the short term.